Jeff Barnett's Wild Predictions

Can math predict who will win the 2011 CrossFit Games? No. But it can sure as hell try.

After the 2010 CrossFit Games concluded, I took all the competitor stats, such as “Fran” times, max deadlifts, and everything else available, and figured out which stats most predicted top placement in the CrossFit Games. Now, the 2011 CrossFit Games are here, and the CrossFit Games website has made all the new data deliciously available.

I have once again done some requisite fancy math, but this time in reverse. I used what I learned last year, plus all the competitor data from 2011, to predict the top finishers at the Home Depot Center this year. 

Before we dive in, let’s set some ground rules: 

• Something as complex as the CrossFit Games cannot be predicted with great accuracy. Training the incredible athletes at CrossFit Impulse has certainly taught me that.
• The equations I used are a little better than 50 percent accurate when explaining the placement of the 2010 Games competitors. In statistics, that absolutely sucks. However, a certain human sub-culture to which I belong finds numbers and predictions oddly alluring, and even though these results are very likely to be wrong, I simply can’t help myself. So, like watching a train wreck, I urge you to read on and find out who math predicts to place in the top 10 at the 2011 CrossFit Games.

See all the statistical analysis here.

Right now you may be asking why [insert your favorite competitor here] didn’t make the list. First, not all athletes had full and accurate stats available. I had to fill in some gaps with assumptions, and that affected their placement. For example, Mikko Salo has self-reported very few PRs this year. I had to pull many stats from his 2010 data and estimate his progress. Some athlete PRs also seemed like ballpark guesses. For example, several of Rich Froning’s times appear to be round number guesses, and conservative guesses, at that.

Finally, numbers just can’t take into account the intangible qualities that comprise a champion. For example, the model would not have predicted that Chris Spealler finished in the top 10 last year, when he actually finished 3rd. He is also conspicuously absent in the 2011 list. The model also under-predicted Annie Thorisdottir’s 2nd place finish last year, and somehow I think she’ll fare better than 9th this year too.

Conclusions

Anybody can use math to spit out some numbers and predictions, but it’s fair to ask how I think these predictions will stack up to reality. If used for the 2010 Games, the model would have correctly predicted about half of the top ten male and female competitors. I think the above list will be similarly accurate for 2011. I have little doubt that athletes like Mikko Salo, Matt Chan, and Austin Malleolo will make the top 10, as predicted.

For the women, the same is true of Kristan Clever, Annie Thorisdottir, and Jessica Pamanian. Among predicted newcomers like Mikko Aronpaa, Nathaniel Schrader, and Tuomas Vainio, at least one will make the top 10. The same is true for Mona Pretorius, Becky Conzelman, and Lindsey Valenzuela.

Finally, I think several athletes will be near the top, but the math simply failed them. Rich Froning and Chris Spealler are notable competitors in this category, as are Michelle Kinney and Lindsey Smith. That leaves about half of the top ten slots up for grabs, and depending on what events emerge from the hopper at the Home Depot Center next week, it’s truly anyone’s game.